Research

Job market paper, peer-reviewed publications, working papers, and work in progress.

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Job Market Paper

Publications

Universal Access, Divided Opinions: A Latent Class Analysis of Public Perceptions of Ghana's Free Senior High School Policy

Onyina, K. (2026). Social Policy and Society, 1–17.

Ghana's Free Senior High School policy is universal in design, yet public opinion toward it is far from uniform. Using latent class analysis on national survey data, this paper identifies distinct segments of citizens who evaluate the policy in systematically different ways, and interprets these divisions through the lenses of policy feedback and deservingness heuristics. The findings show how "universal access" can mask sharply divided attitudes, with implications for the politics of sustaining large-scale education reforms.

Quantifying the Effect of Partisanship on Citizens' Collective Action Against Corruption in African Democracies: A Quasi-Experimental Approach

Oboro-Offerie, R. A., & Onyina, K. (2026). International Criminology, 6(1), 69–88.

In many African democracies, political parties mediate access to information, coordination, privileges, and protection, shaping citizens' beliefs about their capacity to fight corruption. While prior research has identified key drivers of collective action, less is known about how variation in partisan attachment influences such engagement. This paper asks whether non-partisanship lowers perceived collective efficacy and, if so, for whom. Drawing on Afrobarometer data Rounds 6–7 (2014–2018) from 34 democracies (N = 64,192), we estimate the relationship between party attachment and perceived collective efficacy using nearest-neighbor matching, weighted probit models, and Lewbel IV. At the aggregate level, non-partisans are less likely to believe in citizens' capacity to combat corruption. Yet disaggregated models reveal a Simpson's paradox: non-partisan men display a strong positive effect, while the effect for non-partisan women is significantly weaker; urban non-partisans express greater belief in collective efficacy, whereas rural non-partisans register diminished confidence. We interpret diminished efficacy among non-partisans as evidence of exclusion from party-mediated infrastructures, while highlighting non-partisan pathways that can foster anti-corruption participation, particularly among women and rural residents.

Unpacking the Multidimensional Impact of International Remittances on Women's Empowerment in Africa: A Quasi-Experimental Study

Onyina, K., Oboro-Offerie, R. A., & Akoto, O. D. A. (2025). SN Social Sciences, 5(10), 163.

While research on women's empowerment in Africa has traditionally focused on education, microfinance, and the role of feminist movements and NGOs, the gendered impacts of international remittances remain underexplored. We provide the first micro-level, cross-country evidence on how international remittances influence women's empowerment across 34 democratic African countries, drawing on Afrobarometer Round 7 data. We construct a multidimensional empowerment index β€” encompassing gender equality, economic agency, political participation, and health autonomy β€” using Multiple Correspondence Analysis, and employ entropy balancing with fractional logit models (supplemented by IPWRA for robustness). Remittances significantly enhance women's empowerment, with the strongest effects in the economic, political, and gender-equality domains. These effects are more pronounced among rural women and younger cohorts, while older women see relatively greater gains in health-related autonomy. We frame remittances as a context-dependent yet transformative channel for advancing gender equality, with implications for policies that reduce transfer costs and expand inclusive financial and social infrastructure.

Agricultural Extension Services and Household Welfare: Evidence from the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey

Aremu, T., Baye, R. S., Onyina, K., & Abijah, P. (2025). Agricultural and Food Economics, 13(1), 58.

While agriculture is integral to the development plans of many developing countries, the sector faces several challenges, and although agricultural extension and advisory service (AEAS) is prescribed as essential, the evidence base is thin β€” especially in Ghana, where most studies rely on cross-sectional, regional, small-sample analyses. Using three waves of the nationally representative Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey, we analyze the effects of AEAS on poverty, assets, per-capita consumption, and dietary diversity. We find that AEAS is associated with a 28.3% increase in household and farm assets, a 20% increase in per-capita food consumption value, and a 4.2% increase in dietary diversity, with the largest gains among households advised by farmer-based organizations. Despite these positive effects, uptake is generally low and results for poverty are null or negative. We recommend that government strengthen the extension system and encourage uptake from both government and non-government providers.

To Report or Not to Report Corruption? An Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of Corruption Reporting in Africa

Oboro-Offerie, R. A., Allor, P. W., Toklo, S., & Onyina, K. (2025). Crime, Law and Social Change, 83(1), 1–29.

Corruption remains a persistent challenge in Africa, yet the individual-level factors that influence citizens' willingness to report it remain understudied, despite various national anti-corruption efforts. Using a generalised ordered logit model, we find that higher education, employment with assets, civic engagement, and trust in political institutions increase the likelihood of reporting corruption, while political affiliation, urban residency, gender, religiosity, perceptions of official impunity, and media consumption have weaker effects. These results highlight the complexity of citizens' anti-corruption efforts and the need for multifaceted strategies tailored to individual and contextual factors in Africa.

Impact of Social Protection Policies on Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from a Bias-Corrected Dynamic Panel

Onyina, K., & Baye, R. S. (2024). Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 2409421.

This study examines the role of social protection policies as a driver of inclusive growth. Using a panel of 48 sub-Saharan African countries over 1990–2022 and the least-squares dummy variable corrected (LSDVC) estimator, we find that social protection policies significantly contribute to inclusive growth, consistent with the Rawlsian theory of justice. Real effective exchange rate, foreign direct investment, CO2 emissions, and infrastructure positively influence inclusive growth, whereas corruption and inflation exert a negative effect. The study underscores the urgency of reinvigorating social protection systems to facilitate inclusive growth in the region.

Working Paper

Cash Transfer and the Labor Supply of Vulnerable Households and Individuals: Does Household Indebtedness Matter? A Triple DiD Analysis

Onyina, K., & Turkson, D. (2024). SSRN Working Paper.

SSRN
Cash transfers effectively alleviate poverty and improve consumption, food security, and health, but they can have spillover effects on labor supply through varied channels. One overlooked factor is household indebtedness. Using a triple difference-in-differences model, we examine how debt moderates the impact of Ghana's LEAP 1000 program on labor supply. LEAP 1000 decreases indebted beneficiaries' agricultural labor supply but increases labor supply for non-farm enterprises. We recommend integrating financial management and debt relief into cash-transfer program design to enhance its effectiveness in boosting labor-market engagement and reducing poverty.

Articles Under Review

Work in Progress